The cold market situation may not reappear after "6.30"
recently, it was learned from a number of domestic photovoltaic leading enterprises that the subsidy policy node "6 ˙ With the "30" coming, the rush for PV installation has hit again, and major manufacturers have full production, making it difficult to find components
industry experts told that in the first half of 2016, the photovoltaic industry experienced a historic "6 ˙ The "rush to install" directly promoted the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year. It took only half a year to complete the preset goal of photovoltaic for the whole year, while the photovoltaic market became relatively cold in the second half of the year, and photovoltaic products fell precipitously.
with the "6" ˙ As the "30" node is approaching, the rush for installation has begun this year. What impact will this have on the photovoltaic industry this year
impact one: "6 ˙ In December last year, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on adjusting the electricity price of onshore wind power benchmark for photovoltaic power generation. According to the notice, after January 1 this year, the benchmark electricity price of new photovoltaic power stations in class I to class III resource areas will be reduced by 0.15 yuan, 0.13 yuan and 0.13 yuan per kWh respectively compared with the electricity price in 2016. For photovoltaic projects that were filed before 2017 and included in the scale management of financial subsidies in previous years, but have not been put into operation before June 30 this year, the new benchmark electricity price shall be implemented
Han Qiming, a researcher at Shenwan Hongyuan, said that the photovoltaic power plants filed before this year and included in the scale management of fiscal subsidies in 2016 will be installed before June 30, and the electricity price on the benchmark of last year will be implemented, which means that the electricity price standard and subsidies of last year can still be implemented. Therefore, in order to enjoy the benchmark electricity price and subsidies last year, major photovoltaic construction enterprises will rush to install before June 30 this year, thus ushering in a new round of "6 ˙ 30 "rush loading trend
according to the National Working Conference on the marginal cost of energy close to zero held on December 27 last year, photovoltaic power generation and installed capacity will be increased by 18 GW this year. This shows that the photovoltaic market demand is still strong this year. The large installed capacity will inevitably increase the module shipments of upstream photovoltaic enterprises and further stimulate the performance of photovoltaic enterprises
the above industry experts said that this year's "6 ˙ The contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent. Because many projects this year are the indicators of last August, the time is short, and there are not many qualified ones, resulting in a very fast progress. Even in April, there is no large-scale delivery. However, due to the price rise and high cost of silicon materials in the previous stage, all component manufacturers are also unwilling to prepare for inventory
it is understood that from the end of April and the beginning of May, the market suddenly blowout. Among them, the domestic polysilicon output in May was about 20700 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.0%, which can also solve the hydrophilic electrolyte performance of the diaphragm; 2. The film ratio of PE and PP Blended with inorganic or organic materials increased by 19.7%, setting a new record; Polysilicon prices showed a steady upward trend. The average price of domestic polysilicon in May was 116500 yuan/ton, up 5.3% month on month
"because the policy is clear, some projects must be in '6 ˙ The subsidy can be obtained only after it is completed before 30 ', and the whole photovoltaic market may fall into a serious shortage of supply from the beginning of May to June 15. " The person in charge of a domestic polysilicon enterprise told that at present, the overall supply of the market is only sevenoreight gigawatts, while the amount of hope is as high as 15 gigawatts. Photovoltaic prices will continue to rise before the end of June, and the entire photovoltaic industry will show a prosperous scene
impact 2: the component end is backward in production capacity or ready to take advantage of the opportunity.
the above industry experts told that in "6 ˙ During the rush period of "30", many photovoltaic product manufacturing enterprises are working overtime and the supply of products is in short supply
in this state, some small and medium-sized photovoltaic product manufacturing enterprises will not consider technological progress, do not pay attention to improving conversion efficiency, cut corners on work and materials, and produce some inferior products with unqualified quality. Once these products enter the market and are used to install photovoltaic power stations, they will inevitably affect the quality of power stations
it should be noted that China usually "6 ˙ 30 "release indicators have a long land acquisition cycle and a long construction process. If the policy time node does not have a certain buffer, it will lead to rush loading. Once rush loading occurs, although some projects are not qualified, we still hope to get lucky in "6 ˙ 30 ", which gives the backward production capacity an opportunity to take advantage of
now with "6 ˙ With the approaching of "30", some backward production capacity in the industry that has been silent for a long time is now ready to move. Is it possible for them to revive? Dongshuguang, CEO of gclsi, pointed out that the domestic zombie capacity at the battery end has basically disappeared. However, due to the relatively small investment and low depreciation, the component end will stop when it stops at ordinary times. Once there is an opportunity to lag behind the production capacity, it will spring again
"some low-end production capacity of one or two hundred megawatts in Zhejiang, including the silent production capacity of some partners that have been suspended for many years, have recently come to us, saying that they want to help us make components on our behalf.
we will not use these production capacity, because the production conditions cannot meet our product requirements. However, after the recent wave of supply exceeding demand, the low-quality products of class II enterprises will continue to enter the market." Yin Rongfang, vice president of global sales of Trinasolar group, expressed his concern
insiders said that in time for "6 ˙ Most of the power stations installed before the "30" are ground-based photovoltaic power stations, and the owners are mostly state-owned enterprises and well-known enterprises in the industry. They generally have high requirements for quality and are unlikely to buy photovoltaic products from third-line manufacturers. Therefore, there may not be a large market demand for the backward production capacity of third-line manufacturers in the future, even if it is resurgent
to sum up, it is not difficult to imagine that in the future, with the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology, the efficiency of photovoltaic modules of leading enterprises will be higher and higher. Even if there is a rush to install, zombie production capacity will take the opportunity to revive. No matter how low the price is, I am afraid it will not be competitive, and its impact on the market can be ignored
influence three: "6 ˙ 3 Zhongwang launched the R & D project of 7075 aviation extruded bar; It is unlikely that photovoltaic market prices will fall precipitously after "0" in 2015
it is noted that "6" last year ˙ After the "30", the photovoltaic market followed the steep fall in demand and prices, and the industry once became very depressed, so that at the end of last year, the relevant national departments launched additional indicators to help
in the eyes of some experts and executives of photovoltaic enterprises, the cold situation like last year may not appear this year
the above industry experts told that after June 30 last year, the price of photovoltaic products fell precipitously, with a maximum of more than 30%. It has increased since mid April this year, but the range is not very large. In addition, this year's "leader" plan is limited by factors such as production capacity and cost, and the progress is not fast. Partial amplification can not be implemented until September 30 or later. Therefore, this year's "6 ˙ After the "30", it is expected that the decline in price and the adjustment in volume will be relatively flat, and there is unlikely to be a cliff like plunge last year. In the second half of the year, the PV market may not be cold
at the same time, India and Rongji are optimistic about the third quarter of this year. "From the perspective of capacity structure, it was originally thought that the 'leader' plan would be in '6 ˙ 30 ', but now it is clear that most of them will be implemented by September 30. From this point of view, some projects in the second half of the year will not be completed in the second quarter, but will be completed in the third quarter. Therefore, the market will not be at a low ebb, and will be much better than originally expected; Globally, China and overseas markets are at the wrong peak, which may have a great impact on some enterprises that rely solely on the Chinese market, while global enterprises can achieve global balance of production capacity. On the whole, the photovoltaic market in the third and fourth quarters of this year will not be as depressed as last year. " In addition, according to the guidance on energy work in 2017, it is planned to arrange a photovoltaic poverty alleviation scale of 8million kW during the year. It can be seen that the development of photovoltaic industry in the second half of the year is also supported by photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects
Liu Shuai, an analyst of UBS Securities in China's utilities and new energy industry, said that from 2017 to 2020, China's actual photovoltaic demand will not be adversely affected. In addition to the rush to install, there are two reasons to support the actual demand for photovoltaic in the future. First, the official installation target did not include the demand brought by the photovoltaic "leader" plan and new installation projects such as the photovoltaic poverty alleviation project. Second, globally, new photovoltaic demand in emerging markets is expected to rise
according to the estimates of relevant institutions, during the "13th five year plan", the photovoltaic "leader" plan and the photovoltaic poverty alleviation project are expected to bring an annual installed capacity of 7 GW to 16 GW
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